Hello again good folks of the Blog.
Sorry I haven't been on the site lately, between school work, extracurriculars, and learning to tie my shoes I've been very busy and haven't had much time to breathe.
I recently stumbled upon an advertisement for The Guardian that seemed to combine modern political allegories with a children's story we all know and love. Although it really doesn't have any modern significance, I figured it'd be something you guys could appreciate and chew on.
I also have a question regarding regarding the Republican Primaries (I'm assuming you all keep up). How the hell did Santorum make it this far?
Until we meet again...
-Zach
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Monday, February 13, 2012
The Battle for Delegates in the 2012 Republican Primaries
Guess who's back? I am! Sorry I've been away, for any of you who read this blog regularly (a phenomenon that I assume is as regular as snowball fights in the ninth circle of hell.)
Anyway, no long introductions. On to the issue I want to present to you today, the illusion of delegate counts in the current primary race between Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum.
These are the pledged delegate counts for each state we've had so far:
New Hamphire - 7 for Mitt, 3 for Ron, and 2 for Jon Huntsman.
South Carolina - 23 for Newt, and 2 for Mitt
Florida (Go Marlins!) - 5o for Mitt.
Nevada - 14 for Mitt, 6 for Newt, 5 for Ron, and 3 for Rick.
And that's it. You might say, "But Jeffrey, what about Iowa? What about Rick Santorum's three state sweep in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota? What about Maine?" Well, the fact is, delegates in those states don't get allocated for a long time. Months, in a process that takes delegates chosen at precincts to county conventions, who elect delegates to go to state conventions, who elect delegates to go to county conventions.
So, who's going to get the delegates? You would think it would be proportionally related to the straw votes that these caucus states hold, but not necessarily. Delegates aren't bound to the choice of the people. Even in Nevada, a binding caucus, the reality is that delegates don't necessarily have to be faithful. It really comes down to who has the most fervent supporters, and in tha arena, we all know who wins. The Ron Paul campaign has not kept it a secret that they expect "the majority of delegates" from Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, and even possibly Colorado, where Paul came in a distant fourth. This seems improbable, but the numbers tell a different story.
See, it's the Ron Paul supporters who stay, and they, of course, are going to put their man in. In the words of Rachel Maddow (I can't believe I'm actually quoting her), "it doesn't matter who you're voting for, your vote counts for Ron Oaul." From a campaign press release - "In one precint in Larimer county, the straw poll vote was 23 for santorum, 13 for Paul, 5 for Romney, 2 for Gingrich. there were 13 delegate slots, and Ron Paul got ALL 13."
Doug Wead, senior advisor to the Paul campaign, says that when following votes on the precinct llevel, Paul has won every caucus state. Missouri, of course, was a primary that went to Rick Santorum, but delegates are not chosen until the March 3rd Caucus.
So, Ron Paul is building a quiet majority, and even though has doesn't have a very godo chance of winning the nomination, he's going to weild a lot more power thean most people think, and that the RNC would like him to have. The Republican National Commitee has taken steps to prevent Paul supporters from swamping the caucuses, releasing verbal memos to not appoint delegates under 4o (Paul's most powerful demographic), change caucus locations, or forcing voters to sign declarations of preference. But, it seems they'll have a tough time stopping the Revolution.
We have yet to see concrete results that can allow us to actually figure out the state of affairs in the race for the nomination, so I urge caution when listening to FOX, CNN, MSNBC, etc. It should indeed be interesting to see how things pklay out, especially after Super Tuesday. But, for now, on to Arizona and Michigan!
Anyway, no long introductions. On to the issue I want to present to you today, the illusion of delegate counts in the current primary race between Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum.
These are the pledged delegate counts for each state we've had so far:
New Hamphire - 7 for Mitt, 3 for Ron, and 2 for Jon Huntsman.
South Carolina - 23 for Newt, and 2 for Mitt
Florida (Go Marlins!) - 5o for Mitt.
Nevada - 14 for Mitt, 6 for Newt, 5 for Ron, and 3 for Rick.
And that's it. You might say, "But Jeffrey, what about Iowa? What about Rick Santorum's three state sweep in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota? What about Maine?" Well, the fact is, delegates in those states don't get allocated for a long time. Months, in a process that takes delegates chosen at precincts to county conventions, who elect delegates to go to state conventions, who elect delegates to go to county conventions.
So, who's going to get the delegates? You would think it would be proportionally related to the straw votes that these caucus states hold, but not necessarily. Delegates aren't bound to the choice of the people. Even in Nevada, a binding caucus, the reality is that delegates don't necessarily have to be faithful. It really comes down to who has the most fervent supporters, and in tha arena, we all know who wins. The Ron Paul campaign has not kept it a secret that they expect "the majority of delegates" from Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, and even possibly Colorado, where Paul came in a distant fourth. This seems improbable, but the numbers tell a different story.
See, it's the Ron Paul supporters who stay, and they, of course, are going to put their man in. In the words of Rachel Maddow (I can't believe I'm actually quoting her), "it doesn't matter who you're voting for, your vote counts for Ron Oaul." From a campaign press release - "In one precint in Larimer county, the straw poll vote was 23 for santorum, 13 for Paul, 5 for Romney, 2 for Gingrich. there were 13 delegate slots, and Ron Paul got ALL 13."
Doug Wead, senior advisor to the Paul campaign, says that when following votes on the precinct llevel, Paul has won every caucus state. Missouri, of course, was a primary that went to Rick Santorum, but delegates are not chosen until the March 3rd Caucus.
So, Ron Paul is building a quiet majority, and even though has doesn't have a very godo chance of winning the nomination, he's going to weild a lot more power thean most people think, and that the RNC would like him to have. The Republican National Commitee has taken steps to prevent Paul supporters from swamping the caucuses, releasing verbal memos to not appoint delegates under 4o (Paul's most powerful demographic), change caucus locations, or forcing voters to sign declarations of preference. But, it seems they'll have a tough time stopping the Revolution.
We have yet to see concrete results that can allow us to actually figure out the state of affairs in the race for the nomination, so I urge caution when listening to FOX, CNN, MSNBC, etc. It should indeed be interesting to see how things pklay out, especially after Super Tuesday. But, for now, on to Arizona and Michigan!
Occupy The PGA
I am a member of golf's 99%. I play golf, but have not yet made it to the professional level. I have played the game for
over 40 years, but have not really put in the practice time and study to be the best. I also probably do not have the skills
to really get there either. However, I now feel that I should be paid by the successful professionals for trying.
It isn't fair that those players who have worked harder, have studied the game, have better equipment and are stronger
and more skilled should make all that money. Oh sure, they have their charities that they give millions of dollars to, but I
am sure that they write all that off on their tax returns to reduce paying their fair share. Is that fair?
They should pay for my golf, buy me new equipment and pay me some of their winnings. The system should be changed
to accommodate people like me and you! Let's occupy a golf course and demand that those who are exceptional at what
they do pay for us who aren't.
over 40 years, but have not really put in the practice time and study to be the best. I also probably do not have the skills
to really get there either. However, I now feel that I should be paid by the successful professionals for trying.
It isn't fair that those players who have worked harder, have studied the game, have better equipment and are stronger
and more skilled should make all that money. Oh sure, they have their charities that they give millions of dollars to, but I
am sure that they write all that off on their tax returns to reduce paying their fair share. Is that fair?
They should pay for my golf, buy me new equipment and pay me some of their winnings. The system should be changed
to accommodate people like me and you! Let's occupy a golf course and demand that those who are exceptional at what
they do pay for us who aren't.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Romney Wins Florida
Tuesday January 31, 2012 marked the most significant day so far in the race for the republican candidacy. Florida is the country’s fourth largest state with over 19 million people in 67 counties. The size of the state didn’t deter the candidates from campaigning all over the state.
When push came to shove Mitt Romney came out on top. It was his most decisive win yet, winning by 15% over Newt Gingrich. Romney got 47% of the vote in Florida as compared to his 39% in New Hampshire.
“Romney’s decisive victory in Florida has propelled his campaign well past those of the other candidates. But, even if he should be successful in gaining the republican candidacy, he must shift his attention to the Obama administration, so that whoever the republican candidate may be, he has a better chance of recovering the white house from the liberals,” Republican Noah Peskin said.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich came in second in the race polling at about 32%. Known as the “conservative alternative” to Romney, faced an uphill battle in Florida, fighting against all of Romney’s negative adds for him.
“I think that Romney is beating Gingrich because he is a more moderate Republican, so he draws a broader base. Also, Romney has something like four times more capital than Gingrich so his resources are nearly unlimited,” Republican Mitchell Kaufman said.
Third place was reserved for Rick Santorum, the senator from Pennsylvania. Polling at 13%, Santorum’s popularity has been steadily dropping since his surge in Iowa a few weeks ago. Santorum is the social conservative of the bunch, the family man. He is strongly against abortion, pro-gun, and believes in strict immigration laws. Because of this, he is not hugely popular among the more moderate republicans, and especially unpopular with the independents.
“I don’t like Rick Santorum because he is way too conservative for the mainstream, especially with social issues,” Democrat Michael Norwalk said.
Rounding out the polls, Dr. Ron Paul. His following, which seems bigger than it actually is, is not enough to keep him afloat. His libertarian views are extremely popular with the college age kids of America. However, the college base is not pulling its weight in these primaries, where Paul has not broken the top two anywhere but in New Hampshire. Things could be looking up for Paul in Nevada however, where the Libertarian base is strong.
“Well, Paul doesn’t have the money spread his message like Romney can, he doesn’t have a super pac, and his message is threatening to the media so I think they purposely ignore him. I think he will do well in Nevada, he has done well there in the past, so it is fairly obvious that Paul could place first or second in Nevada,” Libertarian Jeffrey Greenberg said.
With Florida in the books, the candidates shift their gaze to Nevada and beyond to Super Tuesday in March. At this point in the race, it is unlikely that any of the candidates will drop out. The four of them will go all the way to the Republican National Convention this summer. That could be irrelevant though because it already looks as though Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are going to be the two real competitors. Some even say that Romney already have the race in the bag. And there are even those, myself included, that say he already has one foot in the White House’s front door.
When push came to shove Mitt Romney came out on top. It was his most decisive win yet, winning by 15% over Newt Gingrich. Romney got 47% of the vote in Florida as compared to his 39% in New Hampshire.
“Romney’s decisive victory in Florida has propelled his campaign well past those of the other candidates. But, even if he should be successful in gaining the republican candidacy, he must shift his attention to the Obama administration, so that whoever the republican candidate may be, he has a better chance of recovering the white house from the liberals,” Republican Noah Peskin said.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich came in second in the race polling at about 32%. Known as the “conservative alternative” to Romney, faced an uphill battle in Florida, fighting against all of Romney’s negative adds for him.
“I think that Romney is beating Gingrich because he is a more moderate Republican, so he draws a broader base. Also, Romney has something like four times more capital than Gingrich so his resources are nearly unlimited,” Republican Mitchell Kaufman said.
Third place was reserved for Rick Santorum, the senator from Pennsylvania. Polling at 13%, Santorum’s popularity has been steadily dropping since his surge in Iowa a few weeks ago. Santorum is the social conservative of the bunch, the family man. He is strongly against abortion, pro-gun, and believes in strict immigration laws. Because of this, he is not hugely popular among the more moderate republicans, and especially unpopular with the independents.
“I don’t like Rick Santorum because he is way too conservative for the mainstream, especially with social issues,” Democrat Michael Norwalk said.
Rounding out the polls, Dr. Ron Paul. His following, which seems bigger than it actually is, is not enough to keep him afloat. His libertarian views are extremely popular with the college age kids of America. However, the college base is not pulling its weight in these primaries, where Paul has not broken the top two anywhere but in New Hampshire. Things could be looking up for Paul in Nevada however, where the Libertarian base is strong.
“Well, Paul doesn’t have the money spread his message like Romney can, he doesn’t have a super pac, and his message is threatening to the media so I think they purposely ignore him. I think he will do well in Nevada, he has done well there in the past, so it is fairly obvious that Paul could place first or second in Nevada,” Libertarian Jeffrey Greenberg said.
With Florida in the books, the candidates shift their gaze to Nevada and beyond to Super Tuesday in March. At this point in the race, it is unlikely that any of the candidates will drop out. The four of them will go all the way to the Republican National Convention this summer. That could be irrelevant though because it already looks as though Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are going to be the two real competitors. Some even say that Romney already have the race in the bag. And there are even those, myself included, that say he already has one foot in the White House’s front door.
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